Clearing up the storm forecast: Simulations, spaghetti plots, and cones of uncertainty

We are thrilled to announce that the Concord Consortium has been awarded a new grant from the National Science Foundation to design and test innovative ways for the public to engage with storm forecasting information through simulation-based experiences.

The three-year Advancing Public Literacy of Uncertainty in Science (APLUS) project aims to help adults understand Atlantic storm forecasting, including interpreting storm visualizations, grasping the forecasting process, and making informed risk decisions. Our goal is to help participants understand that uncertainty is not a flaw in forecasting, but a natural and essential part of storm science.

An image of Hurricane Milton approaching Florida, as seen from NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite at 6:30 p.m. EDT on October 8, 2024. (Image credit: NOAA)

Why APLUS matters

North Atlantic storms—including hurricanes and nor’easters—disrupt lives and impose heavy costs on coastal communities. To help communities prepare for possible storms, weather forecasters often use so-called “cones of uncertainty” and “spaghetti plots.” These visualizations include information about where the storm will make landfall, as well as the extent and timing of the storm’s effects. However, these graphics—which are designed to convey probability distributions of possible storm paths and changes in storm intensity—are notoriously difficult to interpret. Misunderstandings can lead to poor decisions with serious, even life-threatening, consequences.

APLUS aims to change this by helping adults develop uncertainty literacy in Atlantic forecasting.

Cone of uncertainty for Imelda on September 27, 2025.

Spaghetti plot for Imelda on September 29, 2025.

The project will develop, test, and refine a new interactive simulation called the North Atlantic Storm (NAS) Explorer. The NAS Explorer will allow participants to change environmental factors that shape storm paths and generate forecasts for real-world storm scenarios. Through a series of interactive investigations, participants will gain insights into three types of uncertainties scientists grapple with:

Model uncertainty, which arises because no single model can capture the full complexity of storm dynamics.
Ensemble uncertainty, where multiple runs generate a range of possible tracks.
Temporal uncertainty, reflecting how forecasts evolve as storms progress and new data becomes available.

APLUS will develop instruments to measure uncertainty literacy across three key areas: interpreting storm visualizations, attributing uncertainties to the forecasting process, and perceiving the risks conveyed by these visualizations.

Over the next three years, more than 800 adults from Atlantic and Gulf Coast communities will take part in research studies, including focus groups, survey research, and a randomized control trial. Results will advance understanding of how to communicate uncertainty in storm forecasting, how simulations can foster public literacy, and how to design better tools for informal STEM learning.

Our partners

APLUS is an interdisciplinary collaboration led by the Concord Consortium in partnership with the American Meteorological Society and Physics Front. The Concord Consortium will lead the development of research instruments and the NAS Explorer simulation, and conduct design and impact studies. The American Meteorological Society will recruit adult participants from storm-prone regions, run real-time forecasting sessions, and coordinate contributions from meteorologists specializing in hurricane and nor’easter simulation modeling. Physics Front will analyze simulation data and theorize simulation-based public inquiry toward natural hazards.

An Advisory Board of experts in meteorology, science education, and public engagement will provide ongoing guidance to ensure the project delivers scientifically rigorous, accessible, and impactful learning experiences.

All project outcomes—including the NAS Explorer and survey instruments—will be made freely available to educators, researchers, weather authorities, and the general public. Together, we can help create a more weather-aware society, better prepared to understand storm forecasts and make decisions under uncertainty.

Get involved

We will be recruiting adults from around the country to participate in this project! Are you a weather enthusiast? Add your name to our mailing list and we will get in touch with opportunities to participate!