Changing climates, changing forests: What is the future of boreal forests?

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Massive amounts of Earth’s stored carbon is located in boreal forests, including those in northern Canada and Alaska. As temperatures rise and wildfires become more frequent, scientists are studying the boreal forest’s transformation from carbon sink to carbon source. We partnered with Dr. Brian Buma at the University of Colorado Denver and the Environmental Defense Fund and Dr. Philip Higuera at the University of Montana on their National Science Foundation-funded project titled The Past, Present, and Future of Boreal Forest Fire Feedbacks to help disseminate their findings to the public.

We developed the Boreal Forest Fire Explorer to allow students to investigate variables specific to the impacts and ecological effects of repeat fires in the boreal ecosystem over time and in a changing climate.

Boreal Forest Fire Explorer

The Boreal Forest Fire Explorer shows changes to vegetation after multiple fires over time.

By changing parameters in the Boreal Forest Fire Explorer simulation and observing the outcomes, students discover some of the same phenomena that these scientists have observed while studying boreal forest fires in the field, including:

  • Differences in flammability and fire spread rates with four types of common boreal vegetation (coniferous trees, deciduous trees, shrubs, and grass)
  • Patterns in the sequence of forest regeneration
  • Changes in the speed of forest succession after multiple fires in the same location
  • The relationship between the amount of time it takes for a burned forest to return to its original state and the number of times that area has been burned
  • Changes in the amount of carbon stored in the boreal landscape during and after wildfires
  • Impacts of rising atmospheric temperatures on wildfire spread rates and forest ecosystems

Curriculum designed for a wide range of students

The Boreal Forest Fire Explorer is embedded in an online activity entitled “Changing climates, changing forests: What is the future of boreal forests?” Designed to take one or two class periods in middle and high school classrooms, the activity begins by asking students if they have been affected by wildfire smoke.

Using real-world data, maps, videos, and photographs, students learn about the importance of the boreal forest ecosystem in regulating global carbon cycles. Throughout the activity, students are scaffolded through investigations using the simulation to explore the effects wildfires have on vegetation in a boreal forest, as well as the resulting effect on carbon storage of the forest.

In the activity, students:

  • Discover that regrowth after a fire starts with grass, then transitions to shrubs, deciduous trees, and finally after 70 or more years, coniferous trees
  • Investigate how fires in the same location changes forest succession
  • Explain how the total amount of carbon stored in the boreal forest changes as the composition of the forest changes
  • Investigate the impacts of a warmer climate on fire spread and forest succession in the boreal ecosystem

These learning goals are addressed in the Teacher Edition, which helps teachers prepare to implement the “Changing climate, changing forests” activity in their classroom. The Teacher Edition contains answers to each multiple-choice question and exemplar answers for the free response questions. In addition, it includes science background knowledge, pedagogical strategies, instructions on how to use the simulation, class discussion prompts, and other tips.

The Boreal Forest Fire Explorer and online activity are now available for free.

Research results

In the spring of 2024, we conducted a pilot test with 15 teachers and 870 students from 8 high schools, 5 middle schools, 1 elementary school, and 1 university. Schools were located in 10 states across the country and situated in rural, urban, suburban areas. All but one teacher reported that their school was in an area that either had experienced direct (fires) or indirect (smoke/air quality) wildfire impacts in the past.

Student activity responses

The activity contains 32 questions, including multiple-choice, free response, and snapshot questions that allow students to draw on a screenshot of the simulation and associated graphs. A subset of 21 questions on the specific learning goals were selected for deeper analysis. We randomly selected 70 students for this analysis. We looked at their multiple-choice responses and scored their free-response answers using a knowledge integration rubric.

Overall, students showed strong ability in knowledge integration—in which students integrate knowledge by linking scientific concepts—around wildfire spread, forest succession, and especially carbon storage. In six of the seven open response questions, at least a quarter of students were able to demonstrate an ability to link two or more concepts to support a claim.

Students were most successful in explaining the effect of rising air temperature on forest succession, the effect of boreal forest fires on the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, and how the types of vegetation will change in a boreal forest if there continue to be more frequent wildfires in the coming years.

Teacher feedback

When asked about the two most important concepts the students learned, teachers’ responses clustered around students’ understanding of the differences in burn rates of vegetation (5 teachers), the regrowth of vegetation (5), the effects of wildfire on forest succession (3), and the impacts of climate change on wildfires (4). One teacher said, “The biggest takeaways were that it takes an incredibly long time for forests to regenerate after a forest fire and that if multiple fires occur in sequence, then sometimes the forests permanently change.” Every teacher responded that they would use the activity again in the future.

Student feedback

The activity included a final page of demographic questions as well as questions that solicited students’ feedback. Of the 870 students who used the activity, 517 completed the survey, including 251 middle school, 234 high school, 28 college students, and 4 who selected “other” for their grade level.

To gauge student understanding of three topic areas included in the activity prior to using it, we asked (1) Before this activity, how much did you know about wildfires?, (2) Before this activity, how much did you know about boreal forests?, and (3) Before this activity, how much did you know about the process of forest succession? Students selected from three choices: A lot, A little bit, and Not much.

Students’ responses indicated that fewer than 10% of students felt like they knew a lot about any of the three topics prior to the activity. Students indicated that they knew the least about boreal forests and forest succession. Students were also asked, after having done the activity, how well they thought they could explain the effects of climate on boreal forests to a friend: Very well, Somewhat well, and Not well at all. After the activity, less than 10% of the students selected “Not well at all,” whereas over 90% of students selected “Very well” (36%) or “Somewhat well” (54%).

Students were also asked to list two interesting things that they learned in this activity. Student answers covered a range of concepts and levels of complexity, including personal reflections on the severity and consequences of wildfires as well as a recognition of the boreal forest as a significant ecological region. Students responses fell into five categories: (1) impacts about forest fires on wildlife ecology; (2) wildlife behavior related to the speed and spread of the fires in various conditions and how wind or vegetation types affect it; (3) how vegetation and regrowth are affected after repeated fires; (4) the release of carbon during fires and the role of wildfires and regrowth in the carbon cycle and climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on the frequency and intensity of wildfires and in particular on boreal forests’ vulnerability.

The final question asked students to list any question they had after completing the activity. One student wrote, “What will my generation do to contribute to less forest fires?”

Free for teachers and students

Engage your students in exploring the impacts of climate change on wildfires and the boreal forest ecosystem. The Boreal Forest Fire Explorer, “Changing climate, changing forests” activity, Teacher Edition, and teacher support materials are all available at https://learn.concord.org/geo-boreal.

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